Private markets hit a physical bottleneck

From Hyperscaler Debt to Emerging Market Tailwinds: The Macroeconomics of the AI Supercycle.

Mon , Aug 03 2026 /Mpelembe Media/ —The current macroeconomic landscape is dominated by an unprecedented artificial intelligence capital expenditure boom, with hyperscalers projected to invest up to $1.4 trillion annually by 2027 to fund data centers, advanced packaging, and energy grids. This massive concentration of tech spending is currently masking broader economic weaknesses, prompting growing concerns among investors regarding an “expectations correction” or an AI bubble. While the underlying technology continues to advance rapidly, Wall Street is increasingly demanding tangible financial returns, as value capture currently lags behind widespread experimentation and massive cash burn. To sustain this infrastructure race, companies are heavily tapping into debt markets, with AI-linked firms and hyperscalers now dominating a significant portion of investment-grade and high-yield bond issuances. Concurrently, public markets are bracing for a wave of mega-IPOs from innovation-led giants like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic, which could represent trillions in market value and test the capital absorption limits of global equities. In the private sector, the focus on AI data centers and the broader energy transition has led to record fundraising for infrastructure assets, even as traditional private equity distributions remain sluggish. Globally, this AI supercycle is acting as a powerful structural tailwind for emerging markets, creating a historic wealth transfer as developed markets rely on emerging market suppliers for memory, silicon, and critical minerals, which is further fueling surges in mining mergers and acquisitions.

The Unglamorous Rebound: 6 Surprising Realities of the 2026 Private Markets

The recovery in private markets is officially here, but for many investors, the celebration feels premature. We have entered a “Rebound with a Bottleneck”—a phase where headline-grabbing deal volumes mask a fundamental breakdown in the industry’s plumbing. While the markets are no longer in retreat, the path from “paper gains” to actual cash distributions remains clogged, leaving Limited Partners (LPs) in a state of high-net-worth frustration.The primary tension of the 2026 landscape is this widening gap between valuation mark-ups and realized liquidity. While 2025 showed unexpected resilience despite the “late frost” of early-year tariff volatility, the early 2026 Iran oil shock has introduced a new layer of complexity. With higher energy prices threatening a resurgence of inflation and elevated interest rates, the “exit ramp” for aging assets has become even narrower.This post distills the most counter-intuitive findings from the  SEB 2026 Private Markets Report . For the sophisticated investor, these six takeaways signal a permanent shift: we are moving away from an era of passive tailwinds into a cycle defined by operational grit, duration management, and the high-stakes reality of manager selection.

1. Dealmaking is Back, but the Dry Powder Paradox Remains

The headline numbers scream “Golden Era,” but the underlying plumbing suggests a different story. Global buyout M&A volume surged to over USD 900 billion in 2025—a 44% increase that brings the industry within striking distance of the USD 975 billion all-time high set in 2021. This recovery was punctuated by massive take-private transactions like the USD 57 billion Electronic Arts deal.However, this recovery is deceptively hollow. A critical nuance found in the SEB report is that many of these megadeals were co-financed by Sovereign Wealth Funds and strategic corporate partners. Because they didn’t rely solely on traditional buyout capital, these transactions failed to meaningfully drain the industry’s USD 1.3 trillion “overhang” of uninvested dry powder. Consequently, while deals are getting done, the “denominator effect” remains a persistent headache for LPs.”Until exits reopen meaningfully, secondaries will provide a release valve for the industry’s liquidity challenges.”This has created a “selective” recovery where only the “fund gems” find exits. For the vast majority of assets, distributions remain well below historical averages, forcing a reliance on the secondary market as a vital tool for duration management rather than just a tactical choice.

2. The “12 is the New 5” Efficiency Bar in Private Equity

The most significant shift in private equity isn’t  where  managers are investing, but the sheer velocity of growth required to justify the carry. The era of easy multiple expansion and cheap leverage has been buried.The 12 vs 5 Concept  A decade ago, a typical buyout required approximately  5% annual EBITDA growth  to generate a 2.5x Multiple of Invested Capital (MOIC) over five years. Today, due to higher borrowing costs and limited multiple expansion, that same 2.5x MOIC requires approximately  12% annual EBITDA growth .This massive shift in execution requirements has fundamentally changed the risk profile of the asset class. To make matters more urgent, IRR begins to decline sharply after year seven of ownership, and many 2021/2022 vintages are hitting that wall right now. “Getting the manager right” is no longer a platitude—it is the only strategy. In this environment, betting on the asset class is a gamble; betting on a manager’s ability to operate at a 12% growth clip is the only way to earn an illiquidity premium.

3. Infrastructure is the New AI Play (and Power is the Bottleneck)

Infrastructure was the undisputed standout of 2025, raising a record USD 200 billion. The asset class has successfully transitioned from a “boring” utility play to the essential backbone of the AI revolution, leading to a total blurring of the boundaries between real estate and infrastructure regarding data centers.The record-breaking interest in infrastructure is driven by three primary catalysts:

AI-Driven Data Centers:  The insatiable processing needs of LLMs have turned physical storage into the hottest commodity in private markets.

Energy Transition:  Grid modernization and renewables require massive, long-term capital deployment that public balance sheets can no longer sustain.

Constrained Public Balance Sheets:  Governments are increasingly turning to private partners to fund essential social and physical networks.The irony of the current market is that “power availability” and grid connectivity have replaced “interest rates” as the primary gating factors for investment. Investors are finding that while they have the capital to build, the physical limitations of electricity production are the new hard ceilings on growth.

4. Venture Capital’s “Paper Rebound” vs. The Exit Reality

Venture Capital reported a rolling return of 11.5% in 2025, a sharp improvement from the negative territory of 2023. On the surface, the “AI boom” is lifting the entire ecosystem—AI companies captured a staggering 65% of total US VC deal value through Q3 2025.However, we must be wary of “valuation air pockets.” These returns are almost entirely the result of valuation mark-ups rather than realized cash distributions. For most startups, the exit market remains fundamentally broken.”Down round IPOs have become the norm, with two-thirds of 2025 unicorns going public at a valuation below their private market peak.”While innovation rates are high, the imbalance between the stock of capital already invested and the new capital entering the market is at record levels. For LPs, 2026 is a year of “show me the money” before committing to new vintages.

5. The Forest Paradox: Record Prices vs. Sawmill Bankruptcies

The forestry sector is currently providing a masterclass in supply chain distress. Swedish roundwood prices hit historic highs in 2025, driven by limited harvest volumes and the continued exclusion of Russian timber. Yet, this has created a profitability crisis for the downstream players.

Bergkvist Siljan  was forced to close its century-old sawmill in Mora.

Moelven  shuttered its Ransby sawmill and initiated evaluations for further closures as nine out of ten mills operated at a loss.Despite this industrial carnage, the asset class is legitimizing in the eyes of institutional investors. The most significant signal is the  Stora Enso separation , creating a publicly listed forest company of 1.2 million hectares (valued at EUR 5.7bn). For the first time, investors have a liquid vehicle for Nordic forest exposure. Forestry remains the premier inflation hedge and carbon sink, even as the sawmills themselves struggle to pass on costs.

6. The “Democratization” Stress Test: Software-Backed Loans

The expansion of private markets into retail channels through semi-liquid “evergreen” vehicles has reached a massive scale, with US AUM hitting USD 500 billion. However, early 2026 has brought the first real “stress test” for these structures, particularly for Business Development Companies (BDCs).A fascinating—and troubling—synthesis has emerged: the AI boom in Venture Capital is creating a corresponding stress in Private Credit. Negative sentiment regarding AI’s potential to disrupt established SaaS models led to a surge in redemption requests for “software-backed loans” in early 2026.The industry’s standard  5% quarterly redemption cap  is now serving as the ultimate proving ground. While the stress is concentrated in the US, the lessons learned regarding liquidity management and “gate” triggers will dictate the future structure of European semi-liquid vehicles. The structure is functioning as designed—protecting funds from fire sales—but it is testing the patience of retail investors who are experiencing true illiquidity for the first time.

Conclusion: Looking Toward 2026

As we navigate the remainder of 2026, the SEB base case suggests that while fundraising has likely troughed, a true recovery depends on whether dealmaking can finally unlock the distribution bottleneck. We continue to favor “middle markets” and “geographic insulation” over mega-cap buyouts, where entry pricing remains unforgiving.We hold these views with conviction, but not certainty. In a world of tariff volatility and energy shocks, the “golden era” has been replaced by the “operational era.”
Closing Thought:  In a world where “12 is the new 5,” are you underwriting assets, or are you underwriting a manager’s ability to navigate the 12% gauntlet?