Zambia’s 2026 battle over development receipts

Sat, Aug 01 2026 /Mpelembe Media/ — The 2026 elections are unfolding within a

new governance paradigm that prioritizes decentralized development and performance-based outcomes over traditional dynastic patronage and performative rhetoric. The unprecedented expansion of the Constituency Development Fund (CDF)—which increased allocations per constituency from K1.6 million in 2021 to K40 million in 2026—has made localized, tangible development the primary test of political legitimacy. Consequently, the path to public office in 2026 will likely be determined by a candidate’s proven record of local service, effective management of public resources, and engagement in evidence-based campaign discourse, rather than relying on hereditary claims or social media influence.

For independent candidates, this means that success will depend heavily on demonstrating concrete community achievements and an adherence to the rule of law. As illustrated by the political dispute in the Mwandi constituency, where an aspiring politician was criticized for initially seeking a ruling party ticket instead of running as an independent candidate despite claiming overwhelming local support, contenders must ensure their campaigns are grounded in verifiable facts. Those who rely on misinformation or performative campaigning without factual backing risk facing intense public pushback and potential legal consequences under Zambia’s defamation laws.

In this highly scrutinized legal and political environment, existing independent lawmakers, such as the controversial independent MP Munir Zulu, have already faced intense legal battles. Furthermore, the current First-Past-The-Post electoral system continues to foster highly personalized and polarized local constituency contests, prompting ongoing debates about the potential benefits of shifting to a Proportional Representation model to de-escalate personality-driven conflicts and foster policy-based discourse.

The New Dawn or a Familiar Dusk? 5 Surprising Realities Reshaping Zambia’s Political Landscape

When Hakainde Hichilema and the United Party for National Development (UPND) ascended to power in 2021, they did so on a wave of “New Dawn” optimism. The mandate was clear: excise the rot of systemic corruption, stabilize a precarious economy, and restore a sense of decorum to the halls of power. However, as the 2026 general election cycle begins to loom, the narrative is shifting from the euphoria of reform to the gritty reality of structural tension.For the average Zambian, the central question of this era remains: How do we distinguish between genuine institutional progress and the high-octane “performative politics” that has long served as a substitute for policy? As billions are decentralized and oversight bodies are dismantled in the name of renewal, the line between empowerment and patronage begins to blur.Here are five surprising realities currently reshaping the Zambian political landscape.

1. The 1,600% Fiscal Gamble (The CDF Revolution)The most aggressive pillar of the Hichilema administration is the radical expansion of the Constituency Development Fund (CDF). In 2021, the allocation was a modest K1.6 million per constituency; by the 2026 budget, that figure is set to reach K40 million—a staggering 1,600% increase. This is decentralization as “community-driven development,” shifting the power to identify priorities like the Mushukula Ward Clinic or feeder roads directly to the local level.However, such a massive fiscal influx is a double-edged sword. While the physical outcomes are becoming visible, the Presidential Delivery Unit (PDU) has set an ambitious goal of 85% CDF utilization by 2026. The risk, of course, is that these funds become sophisticated patronage tools for Members of Parliament. In a system where local engagement often wanes during the execution phase, the danger is that we are simply decentralizing the potential for corruption.”The President has prioritised CDF because it delivers tangible outcomes that citizens can see and feel.” — Presidential Delivery Unit (PDU)

2. When Performance Art Enters Parliament (The Speech-Tearing Legacy)The current political climate, where social media headlines often outpace serious policy debate, has its roots in a dramatic 2012 precedent. Dr. Michael Kaingu, then Member of Parliament for Mwandi, famously tore up President Michael Sata’s speech on the floor of the House, branding it “comical.” It was a watershed moment for “performative politics,” establishing a blueprint for using media to bypass parliamentary decorum—a tactic later justified by Kaingu on Muvi Television.The resulting two-week suspension and the findings of the Committee on Privileges established a legacy of “disgust” over procedure that haunts the National Assembly to this day. The specific breaches summarized by the Committee included:

Breach of parliamentary etiquette: Specifically violating Rule 18, which forbids tearing documents in the House in protest.

Contempt of the House: Reflecting on the character of proceedings by discussing a referred matter with the media before a determination was reached.

Grossly disorderly conduct: Leading to an immediate order to withdraw from the service of the Assembly.3. The “Captured” Guardians (The ACC Board Dissolution)If the CDF expansion represents a massive bet on local honesty, the events of July 2024 suggests that the national “guardians” are under siege. President Hichilema took the drastic step of dissolving the entire board of the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) on July 18, 2024. This followed explosive allegations of “capture” by board member Dr. O’Brien Kaaba, and the resignation of Director General Thom Shamakamba just one day prior, on July 17.The 2023 Financial Intelligence Centre (FIC) report had already warned that corruption under the “New Dawn” was rising. The most damaging “crack” in the platform appeared with allegations that Solicitor General Marshal Muchende had accepted a $500,000 bribe from a former liquidator. While Zambia’s Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) improved from a low of 33 in 2021 to 37 in 2023, the lack of high-profile convictions has created a cynical atmosphere where the fight against graft looks increasingly like a reorganization of power rather than its purification.

4. The Myth of Political Inheritance (The Mwandi Dispute)As 2026 approaches, the Mwandi constituency has become a case study in the clash between perception and physical reality. Candidate Iris Kaingu has utilized her significant social media influence to claim “no development” exists in the region, relying on narratives of ox-carts and neglect.This claim faces a sharp, factual rebuttal from those pointing to the Mushukula Ward Clinic (completed in November 2025) and the Aibelilwe 1×3 Classroom Block (early 2025). The most striking irony of the Kaingu campaign, however, is historical: Iris’s father, Dr. Michael Kaingu, held the seat for a decade (2006–2016) and served as the Minister of Education and Higher Education. To claim the schools in her father’s former constituency are in a state of ruin is a direct, if unintended, indictment of his own ten-year stewardship.”My dear sister, Iris Kaingu, let facts speak louder than politics… Mwandi Constituency is not a family inheritance. Parliamentary seats do not pass from parent to child.” — McQueen Zaza, Legal Rebuttal

5. The “Bribe” That Was Actually a Constitution (PR vs. FPTP)Amidst the Mwandi dispute, allegations surfaced that President Hichilema attempted to “bribe” Iris Kaingu into withdrawing her candidacy. Analytical scrutiny suggests a more technical reality: the offer was not an illicit inducement, but a “constitutional olive branch” via the Proportional Representation (PR) pathway.Zambia currently operates under a First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) model, which fuels personalized, volatile constituency conflicts.The administration has proposed PR as a legitimate mechanism to bring more women and youth into Parliament through executive nomination or party lists.As a de-escalation tool, PR would allow the nation to move away from “personality-driven” conflicts.By focusing on party lists rather than zero-sum local campaigns, the PR system could stabilize a landscape currently dominated by dynastic claims.

Conclusion: A Question of Stewardship As Zambia navigates the road to 2026, it stands at a crossroads between two distinct philosophies of power. One is rooted in the past—defined by lineage, social media “likes,” and the performative theater of the elite. The other is a messy, expensive attempt at decentralization, evidenced by the Magumwi maternity annex and 1,600% budget increases.The ultimate test for the Zambian voter is whether they believe leadership is a hereditary right or a service that must be earned through the brick-and-mortar reality of clinics and classroom blocks. In this new era of “community-driven” development, is Zambia finally building a governance model that empowers the citizen, or is it merely dressing up the same old structural tensions in a more expensive uniform? Is leadership in the “New Dawn” truly earned through tangible service, or is it still a prize to be claimed by lineage?