When the world’s biggest dams run dry

Rising Tides and New Horizons: Lake Kariba’s Hydrological Recovery and Energy Revival

Sat, May 23 2026 /Mpelembe Media/ —  Recent developments around Lake Kariba highlight a remarkable hydrological, economic, and safety transformation for the region. Following a severe El Niño-induced drought that caused water levels to plummet to just 13% of usable capacity in 2024, above-average rainfall in the 2025/2026 season has driven Lake Kariba’s water levels up to 42.40% by mid-May 2026. This rapid recovery has allowed the Zambezi River Authority to allocate 30 billion cubic meters of water for hydroelectric power generation, paving the way to ease crippling load-shedding in Zambia and Zimbabwe and triple electricity output at facilities like the Kariba South Power Station.

On the community front, traditional net fishing has long been perilous due to frequent, fatal attacks by crocodiles and hippopotamuses, alongside dwindling wild fish stocks. To combat this, innovative floating cage aquaculture has been introduced, allowing locals to raise tilapia in deep, enclosed pens. This system safely isolates fishermen from deadly wildlife, resulting in zero recorded attacks in active zones, while dramatically increasing crop yields and local incomes. Furthermore, communities are organizing into formal fisherman associations to pool resources, buy inputs in bulk, and negotiate better market access.

To secure long-term energy resilience against future droughts, both Zambia and Zimbabwe are actively diversifying into renewable solar energy rather than relying solely on hydropower. Zimbabwe plans to construct a $650 million, 600 MW floating solar power plant directly on Lake Kariba by 2031, while Zambia has initiated over 385 MW of land-based solar projects across the country.

Ecologically, the lake is also managing emerging threats, notably the highly invasive Australian red claw crayfish. This pest destroys expensive fishing nets and preys on native species, prompting researchers to encourage community wild-harvesting strategies that attempt to suppress the crayfish population while turning it into an economic resource.

From Crocodile Graveyards to Floating Power Plants: The Incredible Resurrection of Lake Kariba

1. INTRODUCTION: A LAKE OF EXTREMES

Siavonga, Zambia, is often marketed as the “Riviera of Zambia,” a stunning expanse of blue that masks a brutal socio-economic reality. For the lakeside villages where unemployment rates exceed 90%, the water is not a luxury but a site of a deadly “gamble with death.” This poverty is not accidental; it is the legacy of the 1950s, when over 50,000 Tonga people were forcibly relocated to make way for the dam’s construction, leaving them marginalized and disconnected from the wealth the reservoir generated. Today, however, Lake Kariba is undergoing a “Blue Transformation”—a radical shift from a century of uncoordinated usage toward a technologically driven future that promises to rectify these historic inequities.

2. THE “FLOATING CAGE” REVOLUTION IN HUMAN SAFETY

Traditional net fishing on the lake has long been a fatal necessity, but a $144,000 UNDP-supported project at Musamba Fishing Camp is fundamentally altering the risk profile. By introducing floating cage aquaculture—utilizing securely anchored pens five meters deep—the initiative allows fishers to produce up to nine tonnes of tilapia per four-month cycle without ever entering the water.This is more than a safety measure; it is a structural socio-economic shift. As UNDP resident representative Ayodele Odusola notes, the project moves the community from an informal, subsistence model to a structured “association” model. This allows for bulk input purchasing and formal market access, effectively professionalizing the local economy. For fishermen like Siabulimo Chigwambari, who lost his brother to a crocodile, the change is visceral:“I can now provide for my family without constantly fearing that I will be killed like my brother.”

3. THE 600MW FLOATING SOLAR GAMBIT

In a strategic effort to diversify the regional energy mix, a 600-megawatt floating solar project is slated to begin its first phase on land in the second quarter of 2026. Proving the increasing role of the private sector in regional infrastructure, a consortium of Zimbabwe’s largest power consumers secured the $4.4 million feasibility funding from Afreximbank. The total project cost is estimated at $650 million.The brilliance of this “gambit” is twofold. First, the solar arrays will cover the lake’s surface, significantly reducing water loss through evaporation. Second, by utilizing the existing power transmission infrastructure of the hydroelectric plant, the project avoids the massive “connection” costs typically associated with large-scale renewable energy. This ensures that when the sun is at its peak and hydro levels are low, the regional grid remains resilient.

4. THE DRAMATIC HYDROLOGICAL COMEBACK

To understand the stakes of Kariba’s recovery, one must understand “Usable Live Storage”—the volume of water above the 475.50-meter minimum operating level required for power generation. In 2024, an El Niño-driven drought saw this storage plummet to a disastrous 13%, effectively silencing the turbines. However, by May 2026, intensified rainfall in the upper Zambezi catchment pushed usable storage back up to 42.40%.According to metrics from the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA), the recovery has been a vital “breath of life” for regional power:

March 2026:  15.57% usable live storage (10.08 billion cubic meters)

March 2025:  9.87% usable live storageThis rise has finally begun to ease the debilitating “load-shedding” cycles that have crippled local industry and household life.

5. THE LINK BETWEEN WATER LEVELS AND ILLEGAL “FISH DRIVING”

There is a direct, counter-intuitive link between environmental health and human mortality in the Kariba basin. When water levels are low, crocodiles find natural prey scarce and begin stealing fish directly from nets. Desperate fishers respond with “fish driving”—an illegal practice where they herd fish into shallow areas by beating the water.This practice is doubly dangerous: it significantly increases the risk of fatal crocodile attacks and leads to frequent arrests by local authorities as they crack down on unregulated fishing. Research suggests that 40 to 50 people are killed annually by crocodiles in the region, a figure that serves as a grim barometer for the health of the lake’s ecosystem.

6. THE FIRST TRANSBOUNDARY BLUE ECONOMY BLUEPRINT

Lake Kariba is now the subject of the “Lake Kariba Blue Economy Strategy and Investment Plan,” the first transboundary blueprint of its kind in Africa. Developed under the  PROFISHBLUE Project , this initiative is a collaboration between the FAO, the African Development Bank, SADC, and the five riparian districts.The strategy hinges on the Zambezi River Authority (ZRA), a bilateral organization equally owned by Zimbabwe and Zambia. By moving away from uncoordinated usage, the two nations are creating a shared roadmap for climate resilience and cross-border governance. It transforms the lake from a shared risk into a shared asset, focusing on sustainable investment and environmental protection.

7. CONCLUSION: A FUTURE BUILT ON WATER (AND INNOVATION)

The future of Lake Kariba is being forged at the intersection of technological shift and historical correction. While climate change and the persistent threat of “Super El Niño” events remain significant risks, the combination of floating solar arrays, structured aquaculture associations, and bilateral governance offers a path to survival. Kariba is proving that even in the face of environmental volatility, innovation can turn a site of tragedy into a model of resilience.Can Lake Kariba’s “Blue Transformation” serve as a global model for other drought-stricken, high-conflict water bodies?