Blood and Copper in Zambia’s Stolen Election

Independent Audit Exposes Systematic Tallying Discrepancies in 30 Constituencies of Zambia’s Presidential Vote

Fri, Aug 21 2026 /Mpelembe Media/ — On August 18, 2026, the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) declared the re-election of incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema (United Party for National Development – UPND) to a second five-year term. The official results indicated that Hichilema won 60.49% of the vote (2,965,326 votes), while his primary challenger, Brian Mundubile of the National Reconciliation Party for Unity and Prosperity (NRPUP)—representing the Tonse-Pamodzi Alliance—secured 37.87% (1,856,222 votes). The ECZ reported an official voter turnout of 57.23% out of 8,786,300 registered voters. Hichilema praised the electorate for their trust, pledging to focus on national unity and development, while the opposition immediately rejected the results, alleging systematic irregularities and promising legal challenges.

Despite the declared margin of victory, independent audits and statistical analyses raised serious doubts about the credibility and transparency of the tabulation process. The Christian Churches Monitoring Group (CCMG), using its nonpartisan Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) methodology across a representative sample of 1,491 polling stations, identified significant statistical discrepancies. While CCMG confirmed that Hichilema won the highest number of votes and cleared the 50% runoff threshold, its PRVT audit estimated Hichilema’s actual support at 56.0% ± 1.7% and Mundubile’s at 42.3% ± 1.7%, with voter turnout at 53.5% ± 0.6%. The audit traced the discrepancy to 30 anomalous constituencies (such as Lusangazi Central) where turnout artificially surged by an average of 6% compared to 2021, contrasting with a 15% decline in the rest of the country. Additionally, an independent analysis published by The Africa Report found that in several constituencies, significantly more votes were cast in the presidential election than in the concurrent parliamentary election, representing a classic red flag for selective presidential ballot stuffing. Confidence was further eroded by the ECZ’s refusal to publish disaggregated polling-station-level results.

The post-election tabulation phase was marked by severe operational chaos, administrative decisions of questionable legality, and targeted violence. On August 14, the ECZ abruptly suspended the counting and announcement of results nationwide for six hours, citing security threats and ballot box thefts without providing specific locations. Civil society groups, including ActionAid Zambia, strongly condemned the suspension as unlawful under the Electoral Process Act, warning that it created dangerous uncertainty and allowed ballot papers to go missing. The suspension also triggered a series of coordinated attacks on totalling centers: on August 15, an armed group raided the Makeni totalling center in Lusaka, seizing nearly all result forms, and on August 16, ruling-party UPND cadres disrupted counting by raiding totalling centers in Kabwe, Central Province.

A highly securitized domestic environment culminated in a deadly security force operation and a targeted crackdown on opposition figures. On August 14, a joint military and police task force conducted an armed raid on a Kabulonga property in Lusaka housing the opposition’s campaign headquarters. The state claimed the raid was directed at an illegal militia and recovered military weapons, arresting 11 individuals. During the raid, Mutotwe Kafwaya, a sitting opposition Member of Parliament for Lunte and former Minister of Transport and Communications, was fatally shot. The government initially denied his death, with Defence Permanent Secretary Maambo Hamaundu publicly dismissing the reports as fabricated rumors and blocking Kafwaya’s family from Maina Soko Military Hospital. Under intense pressure from the Zambia Human Rights Commission, the Catholic Bishops, and his family, police finally admitted five days later that Kafwaya had been killed during the joint operation. Other high-profile political figures, including presidential spokesperson George Chisanga and UNIP President Bishop Trevor Mwamba, were arrested and detained.

Following the decimation of the opposition’s campaign hub, key leaders fled to escape arbitrary arrest. Challenger Brian Mundubile and his running mate, Makebi Zulu, went into hiding and successfully sought physical sanctuary under international law at a United Nations agency headquarters in Lusaka. In response, the Zambia Police Service issued formal public summons and call-out notices to their legal representatives, asserting that they are wanted for questioning regarding an alleged plot threatening national security—a charge Mundubile’s camp has rejected as a complete fabrication.

International observer missions (including the European Union, SADC, and AU-COMESA) reported that while election day was peaceful at most polling stations, the broader process occurred on an extremely uneven playing field. The campaign was distorted by the ruling party’s massive financial dominance, selective enforcement of the Public Order Act, and voter inducement, such as cash handouts and state-directed utility connections. Furthermore, state-owned broadcaster ZNBC demonstrated extreme bias, allocating 96% to 98% of news airtime and speech to Hichilema, while virtually excluding Mundubile. Critics and international powers note that Hichilema’s administration has increasingly weaponized the same repressive colonial-era laws and severe cyber regulations to suppress dissent that were once used against him. However, the response of Western democratic powers, including the United States, has remained muted due to Zambia’s critical strategic role in mining copper for the global energy transition and its participation in the US-backed Lobito Corridor project.

Strategic Governance Review: The 2025 Constitutional Amendments and the 2026 Electoral Landscape

1. Executive Context: The 2025 Reform Mandate

The 2026 general election served as the inaugural test for the Constitution of Zambia (Amendment) Act No. 13 of 2025 (often cited in preliminary legislative drafts as Act No. 7). This reform represented a fundamental pivot in the nation’s democratic architecture, transitioning Zambia from a purely majoritarian, “winner-take-all” system to a Mixed-Member Majoritarian (MMM) framework. The strategic intent was to rectify chronic under-representation of marginalized groups while maintaining the direct accountability inherent in constituency-based politics. By introducing a tier of Proportional Representation (PR) seats, the amendment sought to create a National Assembly that mirrored the demographic and political complexities of the Zambian electorate more accurately than the previous structure allowed.

Component | Pre-2025 System | Post-2025 MMM System
Constituency Seats | 156 (First-Past-The-Post) | 226 (First-Past-The-Post)
Proportional Representation | None | 40 Seats (Presidential-linked)
Reserved/Quota Seats | No formal legislative quotas | 40 Seats (20 Women, 15 Youth, 5 PWDs)
Appointed Members | Up to 8 (at Presidential discretion) | Up to 11 (at Presidential discretion)
Ex-officio Members | 3 (VP, Speaker, 1 Deputy Speaker) | 4 (VP, Speaker, 2 Deputy Speakers)
Approx. Total Size | 167 Members | 280+ Members

While the transition to this expanded legislature was intended to broaden the democratic base, the specific mechanics of the new system fundamentally altered the strategic calculus for political parties and the executive alike.

2. Evaluation of the Mixed-Member Majoritarian (MMM) Transition

In theory, MMM systems provide a strategic equilibrium by balancing localized constituency accountability with national-level demographic inclusivity. For the Zambian context, this transition was designed to preserve the traditional link between a Member of Parliament and their local constituents while establishing a guaranteed legislative pathway for minority political voices and historically excluded demographics. However, the operational reality of the 2026 cycle demonstrated that the “mixed” nature of the system did not necessarily function as a compensatory mechanism.The 2025 reforms utilized a dual-track allocation method:

Constituency Tier: 226 seats contested via the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) method.

Proportional Representation (PR) Tier: 40 seats allocated based on the percentage of the national vote share received by presidential candidates.From a governance perspective, the “presidential-linked” allocation method is a critical point of analysis. Because these 40 PR seats were tied to the presidential vote share rather than a separate party-list vote, the system functioned as a parallel rather than a compensatory system. In the 2026 results, President Hakainde Hichilema (UPND) secured 60.49% of the vote, while Brian Mundubile (NRPUP) received 37.87%. Consequently, the UPND received 24 PR seats and the NRPUP received 16. Rather than “correcting” the dominance of the majority party—as a compensatory PR system might—this parallel method essentially mirrored and reinforced the executive mandate, tethering legislative plurality directly to the popularity of the head of state.While the seat allocation mechanics favored the executive mandate, the efficacy of these reforms is best measured through their impact on marginalized demographic representation.

3. Inclusion Impact Assessment: Women, Youth, and Persons with Disabilities (PWDs)

Legislative quotas are a strategic necessity in modern governance, and the 2025 amendments moved Zambia beyond mere aspirational representation. By institutionalizing formal protections, the state created a non-negotiable floor for inclusion. The 40 PR seats were strictly earmarked to ensure specific demographic minimums were met within the National Assembly.Based on the presidential vote share (UPND’s 60.49% vs. NRPUP’s 37.87%), the seat distribution for these reserved categories was as follows:

Women (20 seats reserved):

Allocated to UPND: 12 seats

Allocated to NRPUP: 8 seats

Youth (15 seats reserved):

Allocated to UPND: 9 seats

Allocated to NRPUP: 6 seats

Persons with Disabilities (5 seats reserved):

Allocated to UPND: 3 seats

Allocated to NRPUP: 2 seatsIn assessing the “So What?” layer of these changes, a qualitative-quantitative divergence emerges. Quantitatively, the National Assembly achieved unprecedented diversity. However, because the PR threshold was linked to the presidential vote, it functioned primarily as a supplement to the dominant party’s majority. The UPND’s final total of 160 seats compared to the NRPUP’s 76 seats underscores that while the system broadened the demographic profile of the chamber, it did not significantly shift the power dynamics. The ruling party effectively used the PR tier to consolidate its 136 constituency wins into a dominant 160-seat supermajority, limiting the opposition’s ability to provide a robust legislative check.While the representation mandate was fulfilled in the allocation phase, the operational integrity of the vote itself faced significant scrutiny.

4. Operational Integrity and Tensions in the 2026 Cycle

For major constitutional shifts to gain legitimacy, procedural transparency and the “confidence-building benefit” of disaggregated data are essential. However, the 2026 cycle was marred by operational tensions that threatened the credibility of the reform mandate. Reports from the Christian Churches Monitoring Group (CCMG) and the European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) identified systemic failures that contributed to an “uneven playing field.”Key operational failures included:

Misuse of State Resources: Systematic advantages for the ruling party during the campaign.

Restrictions on Opposition: Administrative hurdles faced by the opposition in organizing and media access.

Suspension of Counting: On August 14, the Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) suspended counting for six hours, citing security concerns. The EU EOM reported that the conduct of tabulation deteriorated significantly after this pause, with 12% of observations rated as “bad” or “very bad” and staff frequently failing to record results on tally sheets as prescribed.The most damning “Red Flags” were identified through the CCMG’s Parallel Vote Tabulation (PVT). While national turnout decreased by 15% across 196 constituencies, it inexplicably increased by 6% in 30 “problematic” constituencies. In these specific areas, official turnout was often 10% higher than plausible estimates, primarily driven by anomalous increases in UPND votes.Granular evidence of this inflation was documented in Kalomo Central . At the Nameto Basic School-01 polling station, votes for the UPND were increased by 113 during tallying; at Siachitema Secondary School-02, the UPND count was inflated by 170 votes. Such discrepancies at the tallying center level, when contrasted with polling station data, represent a significant breach of electoral integrity.These operational failures directly fueled the volatility observed in the post-election environment, impacting long-term political stability.

5. Analysis of Power Dynamics and Post-Election Stability

Perceived electoral manipulation poses a strategic risk to the legitimacy of constitutional reforms. In 2026, the transition to the MMM system—intended to foster reconciliation—was instead shadowed by state security actions against the Tonse Alliance and its primary vehicle, the NRPUP.The domestic stability was severely compromised by two primary events:

The Raid on Brian Mundubile’s Residence: A joint task force operation on August 14 targeting suspected militia activity resulted in a shootout at the opposition leader’s home.

The Death of Mutotwe Kafwaya: Police eventually confirmed that the former Transport Minister was fatally wounded by security forces during the Kabulonga raid.These incidents, combined with the arrest of 11 individuals including Mundubile, led the NRPUP leadership to reject the election results and seek refuge in a UN facility. This collapse of trust significantly hampered the “National Reconciliation” goals of the 2025 amendments.A comprehensive range of international observers—including SADC , the AU-COMESA mission, the EU , the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region (ICGLR) , and the Electoral Commissions Forum (ECF) —noted that while the environment was more peaceful than in 2021, structural reforms are still urgently required. Their recommendations for the next cycle include:

Dedicated Political Party Legislation: Formalizing the management, funding, and accountability of political organizations.

Timing of Reforms: Finalizing all constitutional and electoral changes at least 18-24 months ahead of the vote.

Independence and Transparency of the ECZ: Mandating the immediate publication of disaggregated, polling station-level data in an analyzable format.These security and procedural tensions suggest that the legislative framework for inclusion remains fragile without a corresponding commitment to transparency.

6. Conclusion: The Trajectory of Zambian Governance

The 2025 amendments successfully fulfilled the quantitative directive of “inclusive representation.” By institutionalizing reserved seats, Zambia has achieved a National Assembly that is demographically richer and more inclusive of women, youth, and persons with disabilities than ever before.However, this achievement is balanced against a qualitative deterioration in the electoral process. The “deterioration of tabulation” and the “smoking gun” discrepancies in turnout and vote inflation identified by the CCMG highlight a critical gap between the law’s strategic intent and its operational execution. The parallel nature of the MMM system, combined with a lack of transparency in the tallying process, allowed the reform to supplement the ruling party’s dominance rather than balance it.To restore long-term confidence in the National Assembly, the Zambian government must commit to Open Election Data Principles . Only through the timely, transparent publication of polling station-level results can the state prove that its commitment to inclusive representation extends beyond the composition of the seats to the integrity of the votes that fill them.

Download the free zambia electoral integrity assessment.report
What the Briefing Covers:

The Margin Discrepancy: A side-by-side comparative analysis of the official Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) results against the nonpartisan Christian Churches Monitoring Group (CCMG) PRVT audit estimates.

The Mechanics of Manipulation: Granular breakdowns of the 30 anomalous constituencies (highlighting Lusangazi Central), physical tally sheet alterations at specific polling stations in Kalomo Central, and the concurrent presidential-parliamentary ballot stuffing red flags identified by The Africa Report.

The Security Crackdown: A detailed look at the armed Kabulonga raid, the timeline of government denials and eventual admission regarding the fatal shooting of MP Mutotwe Kafwaya, the detentions of key alliance figures, and the UN sanctuary sought by Brian Mundubile and Makebi Zulu.

Chronological Timeline: A beautifully structured, day-by-day reference table tracing the entire crisis from Election Day on August 13 through to the formal police summons on August 21.

Geopolitical Underpinnings: An analytical assessment of how Zambia’s strategic copper reserves and the US-backed Lobito Corridor railway project influenced the highly cautious, muted international response from Western democratic powers.