{"id":4841,"date":"2023-09-26T11:09:00","date_gmt":"2023-09-26T11:09:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mpelembe.net\/?p=4841"},"modified":"2023-10-13T13:51:55","modified_gmt":"2023-10-13T13:51:55","slug":"donald-trumps-truth-why-liars-might-sometimes-be-considered-honest-new-research","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mpelembe.net\/index.php\/donald-trumps-truth-why-liars-might-sometimes-be-considered-honest-new-research\/","title":{"rendered":"Donald Trump\u2019s truth: why liars might sometimes be considered honest \u2013 new\u00a0research"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/stephan-lewandowsky-685\">Stephan Lewandowsky<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-bristol-1211\">University of Bristol<\/a><\/em> and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/jana-lasser-1380723\">Jana Lasser<\/a>, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/graz-university-of-technology-5706\">Graz University of Technology<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>According to fact checkers, Donald Trump made more than <a href=\"https:\/\/www.washingtonpost.com\/politics\/2021\/01\/24\/trumps-false-or-misleading-claims-total-30573-over-four-years\/\">30,000 false or misleading claims<\/a> during his presidency. That\u2019s around 20 a day. But, according to several opinion polls during his presidency, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nbcnews.com\/politics\/politics-news\/poll-republicans-who-think-trump-untruthful-still-approve-him-n870521\">around 75% of Republican voters<\/a> still considered Trump to be honest. <\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>It seems incredible that a serial liar \u2013 whose biggest lie about the 2020 election results led to a violent insurrection and nearly brought American democracy to its knees \u2013 is still considered honest by so many people.<\/p>\n<p>We began to tackle this question <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41562-023-01691-w\">in a recent article<\/a> that examined the political discussions of all members of the US Congress on Twitter between 2011 and 2022. To do this, we analysed nearly 4 million tweets. Our approach was based on the idea that people\u2019s understanding of \u201chonesty\u201d involves two distinct components.<\/p>\n<p>One component can be referred to as \u201cfact-speaking\u201d. This form of speech relies on evidence and emphasises veracity and seeks to communicate the actual state of the world. Most of us probably consider this an important aspect of honesty. By this criterion, Donald Trump cannot be considered honest.<\/p>\n<p>The other component can be referred to as \u201cbelief-speaking\u201d. This focuses on the communicator\u2019s apparent sincerity, but pays little attention to factual accuracy. So when Trump claimed that the crowds at his inauguration were the largest ever (they were not), his followers may have considered this claim to be honest because Trump seemed to sincerely believe the claim he was making.<\/p>\n<p>Healthy political debate involves both fact-speaking and belief-speaking. Political ideas often cannot be contested based on facts alone, but also require beliefs and values to be taken into account. <\/p>\n<p>But democratic debate can be derailed if it is entirely based on the expression of belief irrespective of factual accuracy. <\/p>\n<p>One of Trump\u2019s senior advisers, then US counsellor to the president, Kellyanne Conway, coined the phrase \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Alternative_facts#:%7E:text=%22Alternative%20facts%22%20was%20a%20phrase,President%20of%20the%20United%20States\">alternative facts<\/a>\u201d in order to back her boss by persisting with the falsehood about the largest inauguration crowd. This allowed viewers to choose whose \u201cfacts\u201d to accept.<\/p>\n<p>Within two years Trump\u2019s senior lawyer and adviser Rudy Giuliani was insisting on national TV that \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/books\/2018\/aug\/23\/truth-isnt-truth-so-should-we-expect-lies-from-donald-trump\">truth isn\u2019t truth<\/a>\u201d. He was defending Trump\u2019s feet-dragging over submitting to an interview with special counsel Robert Mueller and the likelihood that Trump\u2019s testimony would conflict with sworn testimony offered by another witness.<\/p>\n<figure>\n            <iframe width=\"440\" height=\"260\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/CljsZ7lgbtw?wmode=transparent&amp;start=0\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" data-load-mode=\"1\"><\/iframe><figcaption><span class=\"caption\">\u2018Truth isn\u2019t truth\u2019: Rudy Giuliani beggars belief, August 2018.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>These are examples of an extreme form of belief-speaking that goes beyond the bounds of conventional democratic debate.<\/p>\n<h2>Whose \u2018truth\u2019 are we talking about?<\/h2>\n<p>We wanted to know the extent to which either belief-speaking or fact-speaking have become more prevalent in political speech, in this case in Twitter posts by Republican and Democrat members of the US Congress since 2011. To do this we set up and validated two \u201cdictionaries\u201d that captured those two components of honesty. To capture belief-speaking, we used words such as \u201cfeel\u201d, \u201cguess\u201d, \u201cseem\u201d. To capture fact-speaking we used words such as \u201cdetermine\u201d, \u201cevidence\u201d, \u201cexamine\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Using <a href=\"https:\/\/medium.com\/analytics-vidhya\/introduction-to-word-embeddings-c2ba135dce2f\">advanced mathematical analysis<\/a>, we were able to measure the extent to which each tweet represented belief-speaking and fact-speaking, and how the two trended over time.<\/p>\n<p>The figure below illustrates the results of our analysis with examples of tweets that involve a lot of belief-speaking (top) and fact-speaking (bottom), separately for members of the two parties, red being Republican and blue Democrat.<\/p>\n<p>Our analysis first considered the long-term trend of belief-speaking and fact-speaking. We found that for both parties, both belief-speaking and fact-speaking increased considerably after Trump\u2019s election in 2016. This may reflect the fact that topics concerning misinformation and \u201cfake news\u201d became particularly prominent after 2016 and may have resulted in opposing claims and corrections \u2013 involving belief-speaking and fact-speaking, respectively.<\/p>\n<p>When we related the content of tweets to the quality of news sources they linked to, we found a striking asymmetry between the two parties and the honesty components. We used the news ratings agency <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newsguardtech.com\/solutions\/newsguard\/\">NewsGuard<\/a> to ascertain the quality of a domain being shared in a tweet. NewsGuard rates the trustworthiness of news domains on a 100-point scale based on established journalistic criteria, such as differentiating between news and opinion, regularly publishing corrections, and so on, without fact-checking individual items of content.<\/p>\n<p>We find that for both parties, the more a tweet expresses fact-speaking, the more likely it is to point to a trustworthy domain.<\/p>\n<p>By contrast, for belief-speaking we observed little effect on the trustworthiness of sources in tweets by Democratic members of Congress. There was, however, a striking association between belief-speaking and low trustworthiness of sources for Republicans: A 10% increase in belief-speaking was associated with a 12.8-point decrease in the quality of cited sources.<\/p>\n<p>The findings illustrate that misinformation can be linked to a unique conception of honesty that emphasises sincerity over accuracy, and which appears to be used by Republicans \u2013 but not Democrats \u2013 as a gateway to sharing low-quality information.<\/p>\n<p>Why does this happen? Another aspect of our results hints at an answer. We found that belief-speaking is particularly associated with negative emotions. So if Republican politicians want to use negative emotional language to criticise Democrats, this goal might be more readily achieved by sharing low-quality information because high-quality domains tend to be less derogatory of the main parties.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, we also found that the voting patterns during the 2020 presidential election in their home state were not associated with the quality of news being shared by members of Congress. One interpretation of this result is that politicians do not pay a price at the ballot box for misleading the public. This may be linked to their convincing use of belief-speaking, which large segments of the public consider to be a marker of honesty.<!-- Below is The Conversation's page counter tag. Please DO NOT REMOVE. --><img decoding=\"async\" data-src=\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/214283\/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic\" alt=\"The Conversation\" width=\"1\" height=\"1\" style=\"--smush-placeholder-width: 1px; --smush-placeholder-aspect-ratio: 1\/1;border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer-when-downgrade\" src=\"data:image\/svg+xml;base64,PHN2ZyB3aWR0aD0iMSIgaGVpZ2h0PSIxIiB4bWxucz0iaHR0cDovL3d3dy53My5vcmcvMjAwMC9zdmciPjwvc3ZnPg==\" class=\"lazyload\" \/><!-- End of code. If you don't see any code above, please get new code from the Advanced tab after you click the republish button. The page counter does not collect any personal data. More info: https:\/\/theconversation.com\/republishing-guidelines --><\/p>\n<p><span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/stephan-lewandowsky-685\">Stephan Lewandowsky<\/a>, Chair of Cognitive Psychology, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/university-of-bristol-1211\">University of Bristol<\/a><\/em> and <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/profiles\/jana-lasser-1380723\">Jana Lasser<\/a>, Postdoc Researcher, <em><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/institutions\/graz-university-of-technology-5706\">Graz University of Technology<\/a><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p>This article is republished from <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\">The Conversation<\/a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/donald-trumps-truth-why-liars-might-sometimes-be-considered-honest-new-research-214283\">original article<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Stephan Lewandowsky, University of Bristol and Jana Lasser, Graz University of Technology According to fact checkers, Donald Trump made more than 30,000 false or<a class=\"moretag\" href=\"https:\/\/mpelembe.net\/index.php\/donald-trumps-truth-why-liars-might-sometimes-be-considered-honest-new-research\/\">Read More&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4842,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"googlesitekit_rrm_CAowu7GVCw:productID":"","_crdt_document":"","activitypub_content_warning":"","activitypub_content_visibility":"","activitypub_max_image_attachments":3,"activitypub_interaction_policy_quote":"anyone","activitypub_status":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[46],"tags":[2491,722,4035,1191,108,6180,5835,10505,10503,10498,10500,1193,10504,10501,10502,583,4382,744,10499],"class_list":["post-4841","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politics","tag-belief","tag-creative-commons","tag-credibility","tag-deception","tag-donald-trump","tag-fact-checking","tag-fake-news","tag-jana-lasser","tag-kellyanne-conway","tag-knowledge-industry","tag-lie","tag-misinformation","tag-robert-mueller","tag-rudy-giuliani","tag-stephan-lewandowsky","tag-time-person-of-the-year","tag-truth","tag-united-states","tag-watchdog-journalism"],"featured_image_src":"https:\/\/mpelembe.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/file-20230925-17-l5awth-1024x683.jpg","blog_images":{"medium":"https:\/\/mpelembe.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/file-20230925-17-l5awth-300x200.jpg","large":"https:\/\/mpelembe.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/file-20230925-17-l5awth-1024x683.jpg"},"ams_acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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