China will set out its major economic objectives and policy goals for 2020 at the National People’s Congress. We expect fiscal stimulus of 5-8% of nominal GDP to be announced, half the size of the stimulus that followed the GFC. Most of this stimulus will come in the form of bond issuance (e.g. special treasury bonds and local government special bonds). The biggest beneficiary of this stimulus will be the transport and infrastructure sectors. On monetary policy, we do not expect aggressive interest rate cuts or QE; but efforts will continue to ensure financial markets remain liquid, through lending targets and RRR cuts. Read more
Artificial intelligence researchers in Japan say they’ve found a way to predict major policy shifts from the country’s central bank by analyzing split-second changes in the facial expression of its governor, Haruhiko Kuroda. Julian Satterthwaite reports. Continue reading
The Federal Reserve inaugurates the Trump era this week with a near-certain interest rate increase. Here’s a look at the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision-making process. Travis Hartman reports. Continue reading
China’s central bank cuts interest rates and simultaneously relaxes reserve requirements for the second time in two months.