Tag Archives: Recessions

18Aug/20

CRU: Five features of the pandemic recovery

The economy is in the midst of a recession triggered by a health crisis. That makes this recession unusual and different. Here we examine how this recession compares to previous recessions. From that we infer key features of the pandemic recovery. We conclude that demand in most commodity end-use sectors – construction and manufacturing – is likely to be more resilient than normal, because the COVID-19 recession is primarily a service sector recession. The automotive sector is an exception, however, and experiences a slower recovery in light of the structural challenges it faces with respect to climate policy. Read more

13May/20

CRU: India: Lockdown Casts a Spell on Growth as Recession Looms

India is expected to enter recession following the quarantine imposed on the world’s second most populous country. The recent plunge in the PMI activity index highlights the huge economic costs of lockdown. But the worst is yet to come. We expect GDP growth to contract by 0.9% in 2020, well below the 7% norm of recent years. Risks are numerous should the accumulated structural weakness backfire during this unprecedented crisis. Read more