Tag Archives: Psychometrics

23Oct/26

Why the CIA Intelligence Matrix Fails

October 23, 2026Science1, 2, 3, 4, 5, Analysis of competing hypotheses, Articles, Central Intelligence Agency, Christopher W. Karvetski, Cognition, Cognitive bias, Confirmation bias, David R. Mandel, Debiasing, Debiasing Tool, Design of experiments, Dick J. Heuer Jr., Ian K. Belton, Intelligence analysis, Karl Popper, Knowledge, Lepper, Mandeep K. Dhami, Preston, Psychology, Psychometrics, Richards (Dick) J. Heuer Jr., Richards J. Heuer Jr., Statistical hypothesis testing, Tim van Gelderadmin

From Upstream Scoping to Disproof Architectures: Mastering the Art of Adult Research

Fri Oct. 23, 2026 /Mpelembe Media/ — Developing a high-rigor independent research capability requires replacing unstructured curiosity with deliberate structural frameworks designed for time-constrained professionals. Unstructured exploration routinely collapses under its own cognitive weight due to an expanding volume of information, making upstream scoping and strict bounding essential. Effective inquiry begins by tapping into an intrinsic curiosity engine and reframing broad topics into narrow, diagnostic queries that define what data is relevant and what can be safely ignored. Proposed research projects must pass a “So What?” significance filter to evaluate their intellectual yield, while adjacent curiosities are deferred to a dedicated backlog so execution momentum remains intact. Research depth is ultimately governed by a pre-defined deliverable, establishing a clear stopping mechanism and preventing open-ended documentation. Continue reading →

23Oct/26

Why Modern Election Polls Fail

October 23, 2026PoliticsAlfred Landon, Andrew Gelman, Articles, Charles Franklin, Donald Trump, Empirical, Error, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Gallup, George, John Curiel, Margin of error, Nigel Marriott, Opinion poll, Participation bias, Political science, Psychometrics, Public opinion, Research methods, Sampling, Shirani-Mehr, Survey methodology, Total survey error, United Kingdom, United States, US Dollaradmin

The Mirage of Precision: How Partisan Nonresponse and Evolving Electorates Reshaped Election Polling

Fri Oct. 23, 2026 /Mpelembe Media/ — Modern pre-election polling has encountered severe structural challenges over recent presidential election cycles, primarily driven by partisan nonresponse bias rather than declining response rates alone. Across three consecutive presidential contests in 2016, 2020, and 2024, public polls systematically underestimated Republican vote shares relative to Democrats, producing signed errors that overstated Democratic margins by 3.1, 4.6, and 2.7 percentage points, respectively. While response rates dropped below five to ten percent across the industry, lower participation only generates systemic error when nonresponse correlates with political behavior. Voter cohorts exhibiting lower levels of institutional and social trust—disproportionately conservative, working-class, and rural populations—have increasingly opted out of survey research, creating persistent coverage gaps in raw polling samples. Continue reading →

14May/23

Hackers are just like anyone else

May 14, 2023DevelopersBill Gates, Cognition, Cognitive epidemiology, Fertility and intelligence, G factor, Intelligence, Intelligence quotient, Neuroscience, Psychometrics, Stephen Hawkingadmin

May 14, 2023 /Developers/ — There is no evidence to suggest that high IQ people are more likely to be dangerous or to have mental issues. In fact, studies have shown that people with high IQs are actually less likely to commit crimes or to have mental health problems. Continue reading →

20Apr/23

Why universities should return to oral exams in the AI and ChatGPT era

April 20, 2023TechnologyAcademia, Australia, Central Queensland University, Creative Commons, Education, Educational assessment, Educational psychology, Ken Purnell, Norway, Oral communication, Oral exam, Prelims, Psychometrics, SHUTTERSTOCK, Stephen Dobson, Testsadmin

Stephen Dobson, CQUniversity Australia

Imagine the following scenario.

You are a student and enter a room or Zoom meeting. A panel of examiners who have read your essay or viewed your performance, are waiting inside.

You answer a series of questions as they probe your knowledge and skills. You leave. The examiners then consider the preliminary pre-oral exam grade and if an adjustment up or down is required.

You are called back to receive your final grade.

This type of oral assessment – or viva voce as it was known in Latin – is a tried and tested form of educational assessment.

Continue reading →

30Jan/23

S&P Global Market Intelligence Launches Country Risk Scores & Economic Data and Insights on S&P Capital IQ Pro

January 30, 2023FinanceArticles, Companies, Financial data vendors, Financial markets, IHS Markit, Intelligence, Intelligence quotient, Markit, Psychometricsadmin

S&P Global Market Intelligence, a provider of information services and solutions to global markets, today announced the launch of Country Risk Scores and Economic data and insights on its S&P Capital IQ Pro platform. This new enhancement will include high level country risk scores, country summaries and macroeconomic indicators on the division’s flagship workflow solution and data platform. Originally developed by IHS Markit, the addition of the sovereign and economic insights onto S&P Capital IQ Pro is one of the many product launches resulting from its merger with S&P Global. Continue reading